Browns, Buccaneers Ball Out — NFL Week 5 Rankings & Projections

Browns, Buccaneers Ball Out — NFL Week 5 Rankings & Projections (2019)

October 1, 2019 – by Seth Trachtman

Chris Godwin had a career game in a shootout vs. the Rams. (Photo by Mark Alberti/Icon Sportswire)

In this post we highlight our biggest rankings and predictions changes, after a week that featured big wins by Cleveland and Tampa Bay.

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NFL Week 5 Rankings Updates

Here are the biggest increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 5. Our predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team on a neutral field:

Team	Division	Result	Old Proj Wins	New Proj Wins	Proj Wins Change
Tampa Bay	NFC South	W 55-40 at LAR	6.1	7.8	1.7
Cleveland	AFC North	W 40-25 at BAL	7.6	9.0	1.4
NY Giants	NFC East	W 24-3 vs. WAS	5.7	6.7	1.1
Oakland	AFC West	W 31-24 at IND	5.4	6.5	1.1
Pittsburgh	AFC North	W 27-3 vs. CIN	6.4	7.4	1.0

Tampa Bay shocked the football world with a 55-40 road victory over the defending NFC Champion Rams. The Bucs outlook appears better now, as they cracked the top 20 in our rankings and are 2-2 through the first four weeks of the season under new head coach Bruce Arians.

As miraculous as it may sound to a sports media who left the Browns for dead after one game, they are now in the lead in terms of division winner odds and basically playing to our preseason expectations through four games after a 40-25 win at Baltimore. The road victory says a lot for Cleveland, but the Ravens may also not be as good as they looked early in the year, when they defeated Miami (#32) and Arizona (#30) handily in the first two games of the season.

See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.

NFL Week 5 Projected Wins Updates

Here are the top gainers in projected total wins for the 2019 season heading into Week 5:

Team	Division	Result	Old Proj Wins	New Proj Wins	Proj Wins Change
Tampa Bay	NFC South	W 55-40 at LAR	6.1	7.8	1.7
Cleveland	AFC North	W 40-25 at BAL	7.6	9.0	1.4
NY Giants	NFC East	W 24-3 vs. WAS	5.7	6.7	1.1
Oakland	AFC West	W 31-24 at IND	5.4	6.5	1.1
Pittsburgh	AFC North	W 27-3 vs. CIN	6.4	7.4	1.0

After their win in Los Angeles, the Buccaneers are now projected to finish at least .500 for the first time since 2016. The Browns’ nine-win projection would be only the third time this century that they’ve finished better than .500 (and the first time since 2007).

Giants fans have Daniel Jones fever after back-to-back wins. Following an easy 24-3 win over Washington, the Giants project for nearly seven wins. That’s progress after going 3-13 in 2017 and 5-11 last season.

Oakland upset Indianapolis on the road and are on pace to improve upon last year’s 4-12 finish. They do have a rough patch of their schedule upcoming, as they play the Bears in London, followed by visits to Green Bay and Houston.

See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 5 Division Winner Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:

Team	Division	Result	Old Div Win Odds	New Div Win Odds	Div Win Odds Change
Cleveland	AFC North	W 40-25 at BAL	16.5%	44.6%	28.2%
Tennessee	AFC South	W 24-10 at ATL	16.0%	34.1%	18.1%
Chicago	NFC North	W 16-6 vs. MIN	15.2%	31.3%	16.1%
San Francisco	NFC West	BYE	34.8%	48.3%	13.6%
Tampa Bay	NFC South	W 55-40 at LAR	8.9%	21.0%	12.1%

As mentioned, the Browns are now the leaders and favorites in the AFC North after their win at Baltimore. Cleveland currently owns the tiebreaker for the division with that win, but the teams will face off again in late December.

The wild and wacky AFC South has all four teams at 2-2 through four weeks. Tennessee is currently fifth in our predictive ratings, and have a 9% lead in division win odds over the Jags and Texans.

Despite a bye week, San Francisco’s odds to win the NFC West increased. That’s directly related to the Rams surprising loss to the Bucs, which decreased LA’s odds to win the division by 21%, and helped the 49ers and Seahawks in the process. There could be significant movement in the division win odds this week with the Seahawks hosting the Rams, and the 49ers getting tested against Cleveland on Monday night.

See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 5 Playoffs Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:

Team	Division	Result	Old Playoffs Odds	New Playoffs Odds	Playoffs Odds Change
Cleveland	AFC North	W 40-25 at BAL	28.1%	56.3%	28.2%
Tennessee	AFC South	W 24-10 at ATL	35.5%	53.6%	18.1%
Tampa Bay	NFC South	W 55-40 at LAR	10.6%	27.1%	16.4%
Philadelphia	NFC East	W 34-27 at GB	34.1%	47.5%	13.4%
Chicago	NFC North	W 16-6 vs. MIN	37.9%	51.0%	13.1%

The Browns have better than a 50% chance to make the playoffs, which is a rare position for them. Remarkably, the organization has only made the playoffs once since they were brought back as an expansion team in 1999. Cleveland went 9-7 and lost in the Wild Card Round in 2002.

Philadelphia desperately needed a Thursday night win at Lambeau Field to avoid a 1-3 start to the season, and they got it with the help of some clutch defense late in the game. The Eagles have just below 50% odds to return to the playoffs for the third straight year.

Chicago has similar playoff odds after a 3-1 start and win vs. Minnesota. The NFC North looks as tough as ever this season, and the Bears have the sixth toughest remaining schedule in the NFL.

See our latest odds to make the playoffs for all teams on our NFL projections.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy NFL Week 5, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 5 games, please check out our NFL Survivor Picks, Football Pick’em Pool Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.

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