Here are our favorite home run prop bets for Wednesday’s MLB slate.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
Miami Marlins vs. Baltimore Orioles
The Marlins will have 26-year-old Edward Cabrera on the mound for the Marlins this afternoon and are looking to keep Miami’s momentum going after defeating the Orioles 6-3 last night.
Unfortunately for Cabrera, Baltimore is one of the best teams against opposing right-handed hitters. They have hit 117 HRs, tied for the league lead with the Yankees, and sport the highest ISO (.203), SLG% (.455), and third-highest wRC+ (117), trailing only the Dodgers and Yankees.
Cabrera has struggled in his handful of starts in 2024, posting a 1-3 record with a 7.36 ERA. His 13.6% Barrel percentage is 4th worst in the MLB, and his HardHit% of 47.7% is the 13th highest in baseball.
Gunnar Henderson (+470)
Gunnar Henderson has been held homer-less since the All-Star break but has continued to set the table for his teammates. He has five hits, including one double and three runs scored. Today, he gets an excellent matchup, as 22 of his 28 home runs have been off right-handed pitchers.
Edward Cabrera relies heavily on three pitches: changeup (34.7%), fastball (24.5%), and curveball (24.1%). Of Henderson’s 28 HRs, 24 have come off opposing pitchers fastball and curveballs.
Jordan Westburg (+870)
Westburg is another Oriole who loves to mash right-handed pitching. Westburg’s .221 ISO is third on the team, trailing Henderson and Santander. Of his 16 HRs, 11 have come off a righty. As mentioned, Carbera loves throwing his fastball, which will be nothing new for Westburg as he has seen fastballs at nearly a 50% clip while hitting 14 of his 16 HRs against the heater.
Anthony Santander (+420)
Anthony Santander has been on a crazy heater since the break, batting .53 with three home runs and eight RBI. Today’s match-up sets up for Santander to continue this hot streak. The Orioles outfielder ranks inside the top 10 in ISO (.295) and HRs (21) against righties.
Santander sees a heater around 60% of the time in 2024. He continues to smash, hitting 15 HRs with a low Whiff% of 18.4%.
I think we see a big bounce back from the Orioles lineup this afternoon, and Santander, Henderson, and Westburg could lead the charge.
