PGA Championship Odds, Predictions & Best H2H Bets for 2024

July 20, 2023; Hoylake, ENGLAND, GBR; Brooks Koepka (LIV player) plays his shot from the fourth tee during the first round of The Open Championship golf tournament at Royal Liverpool. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY SportsThe 2024 PGA Championship takes place at Valhalla Golf Course in Louisville from May 16-19Brooks Koepka is the defending champion but world #1 Scottie Scheffler is a heavy favoriteBelow, see the 2024 PGA Championship odds, picks, predictions, and best bets

The 2024 PGA Championship will take place at Valhalla Golf Course in Louisville, KY, the fourth time the legendary course has hosted the tournament but the first since 2014, when Rory McIlroy captured his second PGA Championship title. That was also the last time the Ulsterman won a major.

But, coming off a vintage performance against a world-class field at the Wells Fargo Championship just last week, McIlroy sits second in the 2024 PGA Championship odds, trailing only undisputed world #1 Scottie Scheffler.

The table below shows the odds to win and finish in the top five and top ten for each of the top-25 favorites at this year’s tournament (plus Tiger Woods).

PGA Championship Odds 2024

As he’s going to do until showing any hint of fallibility, Scheffler enters as the heavy favorite at +450, which carries a 18.18% implied win probability. At +750 (11.76% implied win probability), McIlroy is a close second-favorite and the only other player shorter than +1500.

Xander Schauffele +1500 (6.25%) is the solo third-favorite, while Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka round out the top five, both at +1600 (5.88%).

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Odds as of May 14 at DraftKings. See the full list of DraftKings legal states. 

Scheffler Enters on Insane Run

Scottie Scheffler enters the 2024 PGA Championship on a run not seen since prime Tiger Woods. Scheffler has won four of his last five tournaments and finished T2 in the other. That includes victories over top-tier fields at THE PLAYERS, the Masters, and the Arnold Palmer.

Scheffler’s wins at the 2022 and 2024 Masters remain his only major victories, but he’s had plenty of success at the PGA, finishing in the top ten in three of the last four editions, including T2 last year at Oak Hill. (Scheffler has also finished top ten at the US Open each of the last three years.)

The disparity between Scheffler and the rest of the PGA tour has become alarming. The 27-year-old leads the tour in Strokes Gained (2.851) by a wide margin. The gap between Scheffler and second-place Schauffele is bigger than the gap between Schauffele and ninth-placed Hideki Matsuyama.

Scheffler ranks first in SG: Off-the-Tee (0.957), SG: Tee-to-Green (2.835), and SG: Approach the Green (1.398). The only category where he isn’t in the top five is SG: Putting (97th).

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McIlroy Finds His Footing

I was fading Rory heading into last week’s Wells Fargo Championship, and the 35-year-old made me look foolish, carding a final-round 65 to win by five strokes over Schauffele and eight over the rest of the field.

Heading into that tournament, McIlroy only had one solid PGA victory since the 2022 CJ Cup (the 2023 Genesis Scottish Open), though he did win the 2024 Zurich Classic with partner Shane Lowry two weeks before his triumph at the Wells Fargo. He also captured the Hero Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour in January over the likes of Cameron Young, Joaquin Niemann, and Nicolai Højgaard.

McIlroy remains second in the Official World Golf Rankings, though a distant second to Scheffler. He’s won the PGA Championship twice, including the last time it was played at Valhalla (2014). His other victory came in 2012 at Kiawah Island in South Carolina.

PGA Championship Predictions & Picks

2024

I ordinarily scoff at short favorites in PGA events, especially when the field is as deep and talented as it will be this week at Valhalla. But Scheffler’s play at the moment is other-worldly. He’s the best golfer on the planet by leagues. I compared him to prime Tiger Woods earlier and I’m doubling down on that now.

Another golfer I’m targeting this week is young Swede Ludvig Åberg. The 24-year-old has made 16 straight cuts on tour. In that span, he earned his first career victory (2023 RSM Classic), finished second at his first career major (2024 Masters), and has eight total top-ten finishes.

Åberg currently ranks eighth in Strokes Gained and has been matched up against Justin Thomas in the H2H betting markets. Thomas has three top tens in ten starts this year, but he’s also missed three cuts in his last seven events. The two-time PGA Championship-winner finished T65 at last year’s tournament. He sits just 31st in Strokes Gained and, coincidentally, has faded to 31st in the OWGR.

Scheffler to win (+450)Åberg over Thomas (-140) – two units

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