Wednesdays are a common “getaway day” in Major League Baseball, and today is a perfect example of that, with seven of the 16 games played in the afternoon slate. However, our three best bets focus on games that have first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET or later, which should allow bettors plenty of time to get their wagers in.
Read on to find out which teams are involved in our top MLB picks for Wednesday, July 24.
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
- Top Bettor Picks for MLB
- MLB PrizePicks Cheat Sheet
Join our MLB Betting Group to share bets and compete in leaderboards >>
Wednesday’s Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Detroit Tigers (+126) @ Cleveland Guardians (-148) | O/U 7.5 (+102/-124)
The Cleveland Guardians are the rightful favorites in this game, as they have one of the best winning percentages among all AL teams. However, it is the Detroit Tigers who entered yesterday with the best record in the majors since July 4, going 11-3 in that span, while Cleveland had the AL’s second-worst winning percentage at .329 (5-9).
Since June 1, Guardians righty Tanner Bibee has allowed a .278 BABIP, but that has been mitigated by his ability to limit balls put in play. Bibee has the sixth-highest K/9 rate (11.33) and ranks tenth in xFIP (3.17) in that span. However, he has allowed four earned runs in two of his last three starts, one if them coming against Detroit, and his career numbers against the Tigers leave something to be desired. Bibee is 0-3 in his four career starts with a 6.86 ERA and a 1.525 WHIP. And Cleveland should struggle offensively to dominate Jack Flaherty, whose name will be one of the most discussed as the trade deadline draws closer. Flaherty ranks in the 94th percentile or better in white percentage, strikeout percentage, and walk rate, and the 88th percentile in xERA.
Back the Tigers on the moneyline at a great price, given their history against Bibee and their recent torrid stretch.
MLB Pick: Tigers ML (+126)
New York Mets (+138) @ New York Yankees (-164) | O/U 8.5 (-105/-115)
Gerrit Cole is starting to round into form with this being his seventh start, and the Yankees have won his last four starts with a +25 run differential in that span. New York’s winning streak in Cole’s starts came following his worst of his seven starts, when he was tagged for six earned runs (including four home runs) by the Mets in a 9-7 loss. However, we are forgiving Cole as he was still on a limited pitch count then, and following that appearance where he allowed 13 fly balls, he has done a much better job inducing ground balls, with 10 or fewer fly balls allowed in all his other six starts.
Cole’s strikeout potential also looks like it is in midseason form, with seven-plus strikeouts in three straight starts. We also expect positive regression from a barrels standpoint, as he ranks in the 15th percentile with a 9.8% barrel rate, while he had barrel rates of 7.6% or lower in six other seasons.
Manaea held the Yankees scoreless on two hits in five innings in the last series, but he has also allowed eight earned runs (and three home runs) in his last 12 innings to the National League’s two worst teams (Marlins and Rockies) in his previous two starts, so we expect the Yankees to similarly take advantage.
MLB Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+128)
Chicago White Sox (+198) @ Texas Rangers (-240) | O/U 8 (-110/-110)
Chris Flexen takes the mound for the Chicago White Sox, and Evan Abrams pointed out what that has meant for bettors, as his team in just 2-16 in his 18 starts, and bettors who wagered $100 on Chicago every time he toed the rubber would be down $1,192. Abrams went on to point out that is the second-worst mark of any starting pitcher at the All-Star Break since 2005.
Texas lost its first series out of the break, dropping two of three to the Baltimore Orioles. It is still treading the fine line of if it wants to be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline, as it starts the day 6.5 games out of a playoff spot. However, this series is one the Rangers should be able to take advantage of and spin this year’s future optimistically for ownership. We expect Nathan Eovaldi to win his team-best seventh start, and for him to earn his sixth quality start in his last nine outings, leading the Rangers to even their runline record at .500 over the last 64 games (they are 31-32 against the runline in the previous 63).
MLB Pick: Rangers -1.5 (-110)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.
